The Republican Candidate - Richard Mourdock

Indiana has historically been a Republican stronghold and the most conservative state in the Rust Belt. Only two Democratic presidential candidates have won Indiana since World War II (LBJ in 1964 and Obama in 2008). Hoosiers (i.e. residents of Indiana) have though on occasion elected moderate Democrats to Governor and Senator (the two-generation Bayh "dynasty" - Evan Bayh and Birch Bayh - being the most notable Democratic presence in the state). The same year that Obama narrowly carried Indiana (by 0.9%), Republican Gov. Mitch Daniels was re-elected by an 18-point margin. So Obama's win hardly reflected a great trend towards the left in Indiana.

Richard Mourdock is the Republican candidate. He is a two-term Indiana State Treasurer who has been actively involved in Indiana politics since the late 80s (he ran unsuccessfully for Congress a few times). I early May, he won the Republican primary and ousted incumbent Senator Dick Lugar in a highly publicized race. Tea Party groups, top national conservative groups and conservative figures endorsed Mourdock and poured millions into a campaign to defeat Lugar. With cash, endorsements and a Republican base of voters increasingly vary of a conservatism less ideologically pure than that of Michelle Bachmann, Lugar lost the election (see this earlier post).

Nobody can accuse Richard Mourdock of being anything less than the Tea Party's wet dream. On every issue that can be placed on a left-to-right spectrum, Mourdock is firmly on the right. On social issues, he opposes abortion, same-sex marriage (and civil unions) and gun control. He opposes the DREAM Act and any form of amnesty for illegal aliens. On health-care, Mourdock has questioned the constitutionality of Medicare and Medicaid, he supports a Voucher program and he has criticized the Ryan Plan (which introduced a Voucher system, and cuts to Medicare and Medicaid) for not going far enough. He would of course never raise taxes, and he opposed the withdrawal from Iraq and would want to stay indefinitely in Afghanistan. The only issue where he seems to divert from a hardline stance is on abortion where he would be willing to make exceptions in cases of some "crisis pregnancies" (rape, incest and the life of the mother?). I somehow doubt that's enough to get Democrats in Indiana to cross party lines. The issue of bipartisanship is where Mourdock's extremism can be seen the most clearly. He seems to be completely unwilling to reach across the aisle on any issue and the only bipartisanship acceptable to him consists of "Democrats coming to the Republican point of view". What Mourdock hopes to accomplish in the Senate, a legislative body based on bipartisanship, except clogging things up, I don't know know.

Mourdock has done much poorer in the polls than can be expected from a Republican candidate in a Republican state. Dick Lugar would've easily won a general election. The tough primary race and the support for Dick Lugar in the state go some way to explain why he's doing so badly. Joe Donnelly, Dick Lugar and the national/state media have also painted a picture of him as an extremist and it would seem as if that narrative is sticking. I will look closer at the polls in my next few blog posts but it would be interesting to see how the Mourdock disapproval polls look.

Mourdock can either continue to run as an unrelenting conservative  or try to moderate his language and align himself with likable, respectable establishment Republicans (Gov. Daniels, for example) rather than the more extreme Tea Party figures who endorsed him and campaigned with him against Lugar. As Mourdock seems to be slipping in the polls (Joe Donnelly has a slim lead in the newest poll), it seems as if Mourdock might be trying to change up his campaign and paint himself more moderate.