The Democratic Candidate - Rep. Joe Donnelly

In 2008, Obama won Indiana by a single point. He became the first Democratic presidential candidate to carry the state since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964. Despite an Obama win in 2008, Indiana is four years later a fairly safe state for Romney and remains a Republican-leaning state. While the presidential race in the state is firmly in Romney's hands, the Senate race is a toss-up. This bodes well for Democrats who at the start of the year were expecting the Indiana Senate seat to be firmly Republican (the six-term incumbent Dick Lugar would've easily won a general election).

Joe Donnelly is the Democratic nominee. He's a three-term congressman who faced a tough re-election bid this fall after redistricting turned a fairly safe seat much more conservative. This urged him to run for the Senate seat vacated by Dick Lugar. He went on to win the Democratic nomination in an uncontested primary. This means that he emerged from the primary unscathed and without having to spend any money (unlike Mourdock, the Republican nominee, who had to fight a tough primary and spend a lot).

Joe Donnelly is a Blue Dog Democrat (i.e. a moderate Democrat) with a fairly conservative voting record. On fiscal policy, he has opposed the termination of the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy and he has opposed any cuts to military spending. On immigration, he opposes the DREAM Act and is pushing for tougher border control. On social issues, Donnelly opposes abortion and gay marriage. He is also endorsed by the NRA and has a conservative record on gun rights. He did however vote for the Affordable Care Act and the Stimulus, something that Mourdock will undoubtedly try to focus attention on.

In a Republican leaning-state, Donnelly is going to have to talk about his bipartisan credentials and emphasize his conservative record. He will also have to point out Mourdock's lack of bipartisan credentials and make the case that Mourdock will add to the gridlock in Congress. Dick Lugar, whom Mourdock defeated in the primary, is popular statewide and Donnelly would do good to characterize Mourdock as the hardliner, the extremist, who ousted the gentle, old, beloved Dick Lugar (who will not campaign for Mourdock). Characterizing extreme politicians as extreme and getting it through to people can very hard unless they slip up and say something astoundingly stupid or extreme. An extremist like Todd Akin would most likely be far ahead in the Missouri Senate race if he hadn't slipped up with his "legitimate rape" comments. Donnelly has been blessed in that he can contrast the unknown Mourdock with the well-known Lugar, and by doing so illustrate to people how extreme he is. That's how he's going to have to attract disgruntled Lugar supporters, and moderates and conservatives that swung for Obama in '08.

Obama narrowly defeated McCain in Indiana by vastly outspending his opponent and by running a great campaign in the state. Donnelly is likely to be outspent and won't have the same advantage as Obama had in northwestern Indiana (which is part of the Chicago metropolitan area where Obama has been a prominent figure ever since he started his career in the Illinois Senate) but he has a convincing narrative on his side and his success will depend on how well he can push that narrative and hammer home the point that Mourdock is too extreme for Indiana.

In my next blog post, I will examine Richard Mourdock, Donnelly's opponent.