Campaign Finance

The Indiana Senate race of 2012 is set to be the most expensive in Indiana history. There are a few reasons for this.

First, there hasn't been a close Senate race in a long time. The last four Indiana Senators - Dan Coats, Dick Lugar, Birch Bayh and Dan Quayle - all won their elections by wide margins. Landslide victories don't bring a lot of political money, close elections do. Especially in a year when control of the Senate may depend on one Senate seat.

Second, a lot of money was spent in a tough Republican primary. The primary attracted a lot of attention and outside spending, and is responsible for a substantial portion of the money spent in this election.

Third, outside groups and super PACs (given rise to by the Citizens United ruling) have taken a keen interest in this vital race and have spent money against both party candidates. Mourdock gets his support from the typical Republican-backing organizations: Crossroads GPS (Karl Rove's super PAC), the Club for Growth, FreedomWorks for America, Americans for Prosperity (founded by the Koch brothers) and the national party. Donnelly gets his support from typical Democratic-backing sources: Majority PAC (Harry Reid's super PAC), Center Forward (a super PAC for blue dog Democrats), labor unions and VetoVets.org ("the largest progressive group of veterans in America"). These outside groups account for about half of the total spending on Senate ads during the last three weeks of September.

As the presidential debate last week revitalized Romney's campaign and supporters, we can expect more spending in the presidential race from the aforementioned super PACs. We can expect less spending from these groups in the Senate races that were contested earlier this fall/summer but where one candidate is now firmly holding the lead (Warren in Massachusetts, Kaine in Virginia, Nelson in Florida, Brown in Ohio). These factors will play into how much more outside spending there will be in Indiana. Fewer close contests will lead to more outside spending in Indiana. The Indiana Senate race looks set to be a close one until the end so we can expect it to remain one of the most expensive Senate races this fall.

I am not confident in the notion that spending in elections has a  substantial effect on the outcome of elections as long as both candidates fulfill a certain financial threshold that makes them capable of advertising across the state and running proper campaigns. Both Donnelly and Mourdock seem to have adequate funds well beyond that threshold. Any massive increase in spending for any candidate at this point will have a modest effect, if any. This race is not going to be decided by a last-month splurge.