Mourdock Is on the Ropes

Indiana swung 22 points to the left between the presidential elections of 2004 and 2008, leaving Obama with a narrow win in the state. Obama is far behind as of now in Indiana and the state looks set to swing back to the Republican party in the presidential election. But in the Senate race we're set for a massive swing to the left as Joe Donnelly looks to be firmly ahead in the contest against Richard Mourdock. In the wake of Mourdock's rape comments, Donnelly was 11 points ahead in a Howey/DePauw poll at the end of October and 3 points ahead in a Rasmussen poll at the start of November. Rasmussen is skewed to the right so Democrats should be happy with the results of that poll.

Indiana has historically been a red state and the six-term incumbent senator Dick Lugar had won by landslides in the last five elections. This should have put this Senate seat beyond Democratic reach and no one predicted that Republicans would lose this seat at the beginning of the year. What has done Republicans in is the tilt to the right and they have yet again squandered a chance to take control of the Senate by nominating extreme Senate candidates in 2012.

The Indiana Senate general election was a toss-up from beginning to the end of October. Everyone was waiting for Mourdock to go firmly ahead in the race and put the vicious Republican primary against Dick Lugar behind himself. That momentum never happened for Mourdock. Hoosiers remained unconvinced by the man and feared that he was too extreme. Joe Donnelly could present an easy and convincing narrative to Indiana voters that Mourdock was the Tea Party extremist who ousted Dick Lugar, the beloved moderate. Mourdock did not have to say anything overtly extreme for Donnelly to convincingly paint him as an extremist (that's how extremists are usually exposed; by saying something extreme) and put doubts in people's minds. The Republican primary was enough to put those doubts into people's minds.

That was what kept Donnelly in the race for so long. What's going to win the race for Donnelly is that Mourdock put his foot in the mouth and made it perfectly clear that he is the extremist that they've feared he was. Joe Donnelly seems to be firmly ahead in this contest and Mourdock's looks set to lose with what's ranging from a comfortable margin for Donnelly to a blowout for Mourdock. Unless polls have been way, way off.