The 2012 U.S. Senate Election in Indiana Comes to an End

Joe Donnelly is the Senator-elect from Indiana. This was to be expected after Mourdock's screw-up where he tried to describe his philosophy on abortion. Those comments truly decided this race. It was a close contest up until late October but the race ended in a comfortable 5-point margin victory for Joe Donnelly when Mourdock who had been cast as an extremist by the Donnelly campaign confirmed it in front of the national and state media within two weeks of Election Day.

Mourdock gave a fairly bad concession speech on election night. The congratulations to his opponent were tame and felt forced. As he got that out of the way, he proceeded to explain how the results of the elections across the country made him fear for the future of the country. Mourdock then cried as he explained how he was attacked for standing up for his principles and he ended the speech by doubling down on his philosophy on abortion.

There is no doubt that Mourdock had to suffer harsher criticism than most candidates (and arguably the most of any candidate) in 2012. It's also true that Mourdock holds a position on abortion that many top Republicans share and which they have not been scolded for. It's also fair to say that Mourdock's comments were misconstrued to sound more extreme than they actually were. Getting attacked for saying incredibly unpopular and extreme things is the nature of politics though. Mourdock's campaign did not shy away from attacking the principles (or as he preferred to phrase it; the lack of them) of his opponents in the primary and the general election so he hardly stood above anyone else in this race.

It's a bad way for a bad candidate to end his campaign. Gracious losers respect the will of the voters by paying respects to the winner and bringing together voters from both sides behind their elected representative. A sore loser diminishes the validity of the victory by expressing fears for the future and by faulting the voters for having fallen for ads and attacks. Mitt Romney gave a classy concession speech; he congratulated the President, wished him well, noted how the country chose a different vision to his and urged people to come together to solve the problems facing the nation. Richard Mourdock congratulated his opponent at the start of the speech but went on to pity himself and imply that something awfully wrong was about to befall the country.

Dick Lugar was criticized for being out of touch with Hoosiers. That may well be true. I couldn't say, as I haven't fully explored the decades of legislative service he leaves behind himself but I know for sure that Mourdock's concession speech, as well as his campaign and his legislative philosophy of hyperpartisanship was out-of-touch with Indiana and the country at large.

Hoosiers made their choice, and they chose shameless centrism over out-of-touch, out-of-wack extremism.

Mourdock Is on the Ropes

Indiana swung 22 points to the left between the presidential elections of 2004 and 2008, leaving Obama with a narrow win in the state. Obama is far behind as of now in Indiana and the state looks set to swing back to the Republican party in the presidential election. But in the Senate race we're set for a massive swing to the left as Joe Donnelly looks to be firmly ahead in the contest against Richard Mourdock. In the wake of Mourdock's rape comments, Donnelly was 11 points ahead in a Howey/DePauw poll at the end of October and 3 points ahead in a Rasmussen poll at the start of November. Rasmussen is skewed to the right so Democrats should be happy with the results of that poll.

Indiana has historically been a red state and the six-term incumbent senator Dick Lugar had won by landslides in the last five elections. This should have put this Senate seat beyond Democratic reach and no one predicted that Republicans would lose this seat at the beginning of the year. What has done Republicans in is the tilt to the right and they have yet again squandered a chance to take control of the Senate by nominating extreme Senate candidates in 2012.

The Indiana Senate general election was a toss-up from beginning to the end of October. Everyone was waiting for Mourdock to go firmly ahead in the race and put the vicious Republican primary against Dick Lugar behind himself. That momentum never happened for Mourdock. Hoosiers remained unconvinced by the man and feared that he was too extreme. Joe Donnelly could present an easy and convincing narrative to Indiana voters that Mourdock was the Tea Party extremist who ousted Dick Lugar, the beloved moderate. Mourdock did not have to say anything overtly extreme for Donnelly to convincingly paint him as an extremist (that's how extremists are usually exposed; by saying something extreme) and put doubts in people's minds. The Republican primary was enough to put those doubts into people's minds.

That was what kept Donnelly in the race for so long. What's going to win the race for Donnelly is that Mourdock put his foot in the mouth and made it perfectly clear that he is the extremist that they've feared he was. Joe Donnelly seems to be firmly ahead in this contest and Mourdock's looks set to lose with what's ranging from a comfortable margin for Donnelly to a blowout for Mourdock. Unless polls have been way, way off.